What Makes This US Shutdown Distinct (and Harder to Resolve)?
Government closures are a repeat element in American political life – but the current situation appears particularly intractable due to shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity between both major parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 employees likely to be placed on furlough without pay as both political parties can't agree regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock continue to fall short, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time as both parties – as well as the President – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.
These are the four ways in which things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
The Democratic base have insisted for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Well now the party leadership have an opportunity to show their responsiveness.
Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown early this year. Now he's digging in.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support together with GOP-backed government healthcare cuts for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to make more of reductions in government employment implemented during the current presidential term so far.
The President himself stated recently that the government closure had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to cut "opposition-supported departments".
The White House said it would be left with the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary described this as "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust between both parties
While previous shutdowns typically involved late-night talks between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.
Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
The legislative leader from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation at the other side, stating how a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a controversial AI-generated image featuring the opposition leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and facial hair.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough as a result of the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of government activity tied to business comes to a halt.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity following resolution, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, experts indicate should administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be more long-lasting.